11 February 2011
YONHAP (BEIJING) - China expressed concern about North Korea's uranium enrichment program (UEP) when Beijing's chief nuclear envoy met with his South Korean counterpart, but insisted that the issue should be dealt with at six-party nuclear talks. South Korea's main nuclear envoy, Wi Sung-lac's visit came after China expressed "concern" about the North's uranium program for the first time in last month's summit with the United States. That had raised hope that Beijing could change its position and back Seoul's efforts to bring the issue to the Security Council. Source: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/02/11/35/0301000000AEN20110211009500315F.HTML (Reliability: Moderate - 38.88)
Friday, February 11, 2011
Cameco Signs Uranium Purchase Agreements In Finland
08 February 2011
MONTREALGAZETTE.COM (MONTREAL)--Canada-based Cameco Corp. signed two agreements to buy uranium produced at the Sotkamo mine from Talvivaara Mining Co. The first agreement states that Cameco will provide up to USD 60 million to construct an extraction circuit at the mine that they will complete in 2012. After initial uranium deliveries repay this contribution, Cameco will purchas
e uranium from the mine until 31 December 2027 per the second agreement. Cameco will then take ownership of the mine, which they expect to produce 900,000 lbs of uranium annually. Source: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Cameco+signs+uranium+purchase+agreements+Finland/4244477/story.html (Reliability: 44.16--Moderate)
Analysis:
With the addition of uranium from the Sotkamo mine to its long list of resources, Cameco is highly likely to continue to be a global leader in uranium extraction over the next two years. On 19 December 2010, Cameco marked producing its 400 millionth pound of U3O8. Its principal mine, McArthur River Mine, produced nearly 16.18 million pounds of uranium in 2010 (15% of world production) that Cameco converted into 19.1 million pounds of U3O8 at its Key Lake processing plant. (Analytic Confidence: High)
Image: The red rectangle and shaded area outline the Sotkamo mine in Finland. Image Source: http://www.gexco.se/images/taivaljarvi/location_2.jpg
MONTREALGAZETTE.COM (MONTREAL)--Canada-based Cameco Corp. signed two agreements to buy uranium produced at the Sotkamo mine from Talvivaara Mining Co. The first agreement states that Cameco will provide up to USD 60 million to construct an extraction circuit at the mine that they will complete in 2012. After initial uranium deliveries repay this contribution, Cameco will purchas
e uranium from the mine until 31 December 2027 per the second agreement. Cameco will then take ownership of the mine, which they expect to produce 900,000 lbs of uranium annually. Source: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Cameco+signs+uranium+purchase+agreements+Finland/4244477/story.html (Reliability: 44.16--Moderate) Analysis:
With the addition of uranium from the Sotkamo mine to its long list of resources, Cameco is highly likely to continue to be a global leader in uranium extraction over the next two years. On 19 December 2010, Cameco marked producing its 400 millionth pound of U3O8. Its principal mine, McArthur River Mine, produced nearly 16.18 million pounds of uranium in 2010 (15% of world production) that Cameco converted into 19.1 million pounds of U3O8 at its Key Lake processing plant. (Analytic Confidence: High)
Image: The red rectangle and shaded area outline the Sotkamo mine in Finland. Image Source: http://www.gexco.se/images/taivaljarvi/location_2.jpg
U.A.E. Needs To Determine Nuclear Fuel Disposal Plan, Blix Says
08 February 2011
BLOOMBERG (DUBAI)-The United Arab Emirates needs to determine how to dispose of used nuclear fuel as part of its energy development program, government adviser and former United Nations chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said. “The question of a final disposal plan is still open and more attention should be spent on deciding what to do,” Blix, chairman of an independent advisory group set up by the government, told reporters on 7 February. He added that the federation currently focused on implementing regulations and building the plants. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/u-a-e-needs-to-determine-nuclear-fuel-disposal-plan-blix-says.html (Reliability: 47.91--High)
Comment:
The federation will be the first Gulf Arab country to develop nuclear power if it starts up its first reactor in 2017 as planned. Abu Dhabi, the largest sheikhdom in the U.A.E. and the nation’s capital, owns Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp., the only company that plans to build the power plants in the country.
BLOOMBERG (DUBAI)-The United Arab Emirates needs to determine how to dispose of used nuclear fuel as part of its energy development program, government adviser and former United Nations chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said. “The question of a final disposal plan is still open and more attention should be spent on deciding what to do,” Blix, chairman of an independent advisory group set up by the government, told reporters on 7 February. He added that the federation currently focused on implementing regulations and building the plants. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/u-a-e-needs-to-determine-nuclear-fuel-disposal-plan-blix-says.html (Reliability: 47.91--High)
Comment:
The federation will be the first Gulf Arab country to develop nuclear power if it starts up its first reactor in 2017 as planned. Abu Dhabi, the largest sheikhdom in the U.A.E. and the nation’s capital, owns Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp., the only company that plans to build the power plants in the country.
Nuclear Nonproliferation Support Center Opens
08 February 2011DENKI SHIMBUN (TOKYO)--Japan opened the Integrated Comprehensive Support Center for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Nuclear Security on February 4. The facility will provide training in the principles of nuclear material protection systems, regulatory frameworks, and facility design for nuclear material protection for developing countries with new nuclear power capabilities. Shunsuke Kondo, the head of Japan's Atomic Energy Commission, and Jill Cooley, the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Division of Concepts and Planning Director, both spoke at the facility's opening ceremony. The facility is located near many other nuclear power related facilities (at the blue marker on the map above; click to enlarge). Source: http://www.shimbun.denki.or.jp/en/news/20110208_01.html (Reliability: 43.4 -- Moderate)
Analysis:
It is highly likely that nuclear non-proliferation efforts will be a major political movement at least through the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul. Additionally, it is likely that countries will continue to provide necessary support for developing countries that wish to pursue nuclear power. The IAEA will likely provide a supportive role in this endeavor. In January of 2011, the United States announced the construction of similar facilities in Russia and China. (Analytic Confidence: High)
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Atomstroyexport Will Build Two Reactors In Ukraine
10 February 2011
WORLD NUCLEAR NEWS (LONDON) - Atomstroyexport, a Russian nuclear reactor construction company, signed an agreement on 9 February 2011 with EnergoAtom, Ukraine's national electicity generator, to build two reactors at Ukraine's Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. The agreement lays the groundwork for contracts regarding reactor design and equipment. Construction of these reactors began in 1985 but stopped in 1990. In June 2010 Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to resume construction. Ukraine expects to commission the reactors in 2016 and 2017. Source: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Contract_agreement_for_Khmelnitsky_3_and_4-1002115.html (Reliability 39.09 -- Moderate)
WORLD NUCLEAR NEWS (LONDON) - Atomstroyexport, a Russian nuclear reactor construction company, signed an agreement on 9 February 2011 with EnergoAtom, Ukraine's national electicity generator, to build two reactors at Ukraine's Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. The agreement lays the groundwork for contracts regarding reactor design and equipment. Construction of these reactors began in 1985 but stopped in 1990. In June 2010 Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to resume construction. Ukraine expects to commission the reactors in 2016 and 2017. Source: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Contract_agreement_for_Khmelnitsky_3_and_4-1002115.html (Reliability 39.09 -- Moderate)
Friday, February 4, 2011
WikiLeaks Cables: British Firms Made Millions From Trading With Iranians
04 February 2011THE DAILY TELEGRAPH (LONDON) – Fearing that trade deals of aircraft and ships between British firms and Iranians correlated with the transport of nuclear material, the US and UK blocked the arrangement in April 2008. After making millions of pounds selling or leasing items to Iran, the UK’s Balli Group’s American subsidiary, Balli Aviation, paid $2 million in criminal fines and $13 million in civil fines after pleading guilty in a US court to illegally exporting aircraft to Iran. Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299355/WikiLeaks-cables-British-firms-made-millions-from-trading-with-Iranians.html (Reliability: 47.94 - High)
Comment:
Mahan Air, the Iranian company which leased the aircraft, is associated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the Embassy cable. The settlement Balli Aviation paid out is one of the largest fines imposed by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security. UK Bailli intended to provide three 747-400s to Iran.
Image source: http://www.aerospace-technology.com/projects/747/
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Stuxnet Could Trigger Atomic Calamity, Intel Report Warns
01 February 2011
GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON) - A non-U.S. intelligence report stated Monday, January 31st, 2011, that the Stuxnet worm that affected Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant could trigger a calamity similar to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The report states the operating reactor (Bushehr), would have the power of a "small nuclear bomb" and the "minimum possible damage would be meltdown of the reactor" if Stuxnet compromised its controls. A conflicting response from an expert who analyzed the effect of the Stuxnet worm on the Siemens controls system said something like Stuxnet could not trigger a thermonuclear reaction. Source: http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20110201_5933.php (Reliability: 46.04 - Moderate)
Comment:
Reports regarding the effect of Stuxnet have been mixed since the initial attack. The source of the worm has not been revealed and Iran has not been entirely straightforward in how much the attack affected the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON) - A non-U.S. intelligence report stated Monday, January 31st, 2011, that the Stuxnet worm that affected Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant could trigger a calamity similar to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The report states the operating reactor (Bushehr), would have the power of a "small nuclear bomb" and the "minimum possible damage would be meltdown of the reactor" if Stuxnet compromised its controls. A conflicting response from an expert who analyzed the effect of the Stuxnet worm on the Siemens controls system said something like Stuxnet could not trigger a thermonuclear reaction. Source: http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20110201_5933.php (Reliability: 46.04 - Moderate)
Comment:
Reports regarding the effect of Stuxnet have been mixed since the initial attack. The source of the worm has not been revealed and Iran has not been entirely straightforward in how much the attack affected the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Updated Feasibility Study Yields More Resources For Etango Uranium Project In Namibia
31 January 2011
WORLD NUCLEAR NEWS (LONDON)-- Bannerman Resources estimates that the indicated and inferred resources at its Etango deposit in Namibia have risen to 149 million pounds (mlbs) and 64 mlbs of U3O8 respectively. Its updated feasibility study indicates that Etango will have a mine life of 20 years, producing 5-7 mlbs of U3O8 per year. Bannerman will mine the deposit using open pit methods and a simple heap leaching process. It plans to complete the feasibility study, secure a development partner, and obtain a mining license during 2011. Source: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ENF-More_resources_as_Etango_plans_take_shape-3101118.html (Reliability: 46.73 -- Moderate)
Analysis:
It is likely that uranium mining will dramatically increase in Namibia over the next 12-24 months. Currently, Rio Tinto's Rossing mine and Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich mine produce about 10% of the world's uranium. UraMin expects to start production at its Trekkopje mine in 2012, and Bannerman is making significant progress with its Etango project and aims to start production in 2013. Lastly, the Namibian Ministry of Environment and Tourism gave the environmental approval for Extract Resources' Husab project on 28 January 2011. This is a large step in obtaining a mining license from the Namibian government and Extract estimates the Husab project to produce 15 mlbs of U3O8 per year. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)
Image Source: Google Earth and http://australianuraniuminvesting.blogspot.com/2010_01_24_archive.html
WORLD NUCLEAR NEWS (LONDON)-- Bannerman Resources estimates that the indicated and inferred resources at its Etango deposit in Namibia have risen to 149 million pounds (mlbs) and 64 mlbs of U3O8 respectively. Its updated feasibility study indicates that Etango will have a mine life of 20 years, producing 5-7 mlbs of U3O8 per year. Bannerman will mine the deposit using open pit methods and a simple heap leaching process. It plans to complete the feasibility study, secure a development partner, and obtain a mining license during 2011. Source: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ENF-More_resources_as_Etango_plans_take_shape-3101118.html (Reliability: 46.73 -- Moderate)
Analysis:
It is likely that uranium mining will dramatically increase in Namibia over the next 12-24 months. Currently, Rio Tinto's Rossing mine and Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich mine produce about 10% of the world's uranium. UraMin expects to start production at its Trekkopje mine in 2012, and Bannerman is making significant progress with its Etango project and aims to start production in 2013. Lastly, the Namibian Ministry of Environment and Tourism gave the environmental approval for Extract Resources' Husab project on 28 January 2011. This is a large step in obtaining a mining license from the Namibian government and Extract estimates the Husab project to produce 15 mlbs of U3O8 per year. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)
Image Source: Google Earth and http://australianuraniuminvesting.blogspot.com/2010_01_24_archive.html
New Estimates Put Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal At More Than 100
31 January 2011
WASHINGTON POST (WASHINGTON)--Analysts estimate that Pakistan now has over 100 nuclear weapons. Pakistan likely now has more nuclear weapons than its rival India and the United Kingdom. Pakistan has more than doubled its nuclear weapon total since 2007. The estimate comes independently from Hans M. Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists, and Shaun Gregory, director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at Britain's University of Bradford. Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013004136.html?hpid=topnews (Reliability: 49.82 -- High)
Analysis:
It is highly likely that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal will become a major point of contention diplomatically between Russia, China, India, and the United States (U.S.). Russia recently has increased its cooperation with India and finds Pakistan's nuclear buildup "disturbing." China sees India as a major rival in the area and thus has invested heavily in Pakistan. The U.S. is caught in the middle due to partnerships with both India and Pakistan, along with the ongoing war in Afghanistan. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)
Pakistani Nuclear Weapons Arsenal On Track To Be World's Fifth Largest
01 February 2011
GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON) Recent U.S. intelligence estimates claim Pakistan is rapidly increasing the size of its nuclear stockpile and could become the fifth largest nuclear arms possessor. United States officials believe Pakistan has roughly 90 to 110 nuclear weapons. When President Obama assumed office in 2009, the United States believed Islamabad's nuclear forces numbered in the upper 70s. US officials believe India possesses between 60 and 100 nuclear weapons. Source: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110201_5282.php (Reliability: 39.52 -- Moderate)
Analysis:
Increased Pakistani nuclear development is unlikely to change Pakistan's relationship with India or the rest of the world. Pakistan already possesses enough nuclear weapons to present a credible nuclear threat to India. (Analytic Confidence: Low)
GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON) Recent U.S. intelligence estimates claim Pakistan is rapidly increasing the size of its nuclear stockpile and could become the fifth largest nuclear arms possessor. United States officials believe Pakistan has roughly 90 to 110 nuclear weapons. When President Obama assumed office in 2009, the United States believed Islamabad's nuclear forces numbered in the upper 70s. US officials believe India possesses between 60 and 100 nuclear weapons. Source: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110201_5282.php (Reliability: 39.52 -- Moderate)
Analysis:
Increased Pakistani nuclear development is unlikely to change Pakistan's relationship with India or the rest of the world. Pakistan already possesses enough nuclear weapons to present a credible nuclear threat to India. (Analytic Confidence: Low)
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