Nuclear Nonproliferation Support Center Opens

08 February 2011

DENKI SHIMBUN (TOKYO)--Japan opened the Integrated Comprehensive Support Center for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Nuclear Security on February 4. The facility will provide training in the principles of nuclear material protection systems, regulatory frameworks, and facility design for nuclear material protection for developing countries with new nuclear power capabilities. Shunsuke Kondo, the head of Japan's Atomic Energy Commission, and Jill Cooley, the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Division of Concepts and Planning Director, both spoke at the facility's opening ceremony. The facility is located near many other nuclear power related facilities (at the blue marker on the map above; click to enlarge). Source: http://www.shimbun.denki.or.jp/en/news/20110208_01.html (Reliability: 43.4 -- Moderate)

Analysis:
It is highly likely that nuclear non-proliferation efforts will be a major political movement at least through the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul. Additionally, it is likely that countries will continue to provide necessary support for developing countries that wish to pursue nuclear power. The IAEA will likely provide a supportive role in this endeavor. In January of 2011, the United States announced the construction of similar facilities in Russia and China. (Analytic Confidence: High)

New Estimates Put Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal At More Than 100

31 January 2011

WASHINGTON POST (WASHINGTON)--Analysts estimate that Pakistan now has over 100 nuclear weapons. Pakistan likely now has more nuclear weapons than its rival India and the United Kingdom. Pakistan has more than doubled its nuclear weapon total since 2007. The estimate comes independently from Hans M. Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists, and Shaun Gregory, director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at Britain's University of Bradford. Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013004136.html?hpid=topnews (Reliability: 49.82 -- High)

Analysis:
It is highly likely that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal will become a major point of contention diplomatically between Russia, China, India, and the United States (U.S.). Russia recently has increased its cooperation with India and finds Pakistan's nuclear buildup "disturbing." China sees India as a major rival in the area and thus has invested heavily in Pakistan. The U.S. is caught in the middle due to partnerships with both India and Pakistan, along with the ongoing war in Afghanistan. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)

CTBTO Tests Nuke Explosion Monitoring Technology

28 January 2011

GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON)--The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) tested a new way of detecting an atmospheric nuclear explosion in the Israeli Negev desert. The test successfully demonstrated that infrasound technology can detect low-frequency sound waves that human ears cannot hear. The test involved 25 infrasound sensors located in 15 Middle Eastern and European states. Six additional states collected the data for analysis. Source: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110127_8992.php (Reliability: 40.36 -- Moderate)

Image source: http://bit.ly/dLl0NO

U.S., China Agree To Expand Nuclear Security Ties

20 January 2011

GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON)--The United States (U.S.) and China agreed to open and operate a collaborative nuclear security center in China. The center will seek to spread best practices in regards to states' abilities to safeguard and account for nuclear materials. The U.S. agreed to supply trainers and machinery for the center, while China agreed to pay for most of the costs of operation. Officials said other Asian nations likely would be allowed to use the center. The center would be a joint effort between the U.S. National Nuclear Safety Administration (N.N.S.A.) and the China Atomic Energy Authority. Source: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110120_5230.php (Reliability: 45.3 -- Moderate)

Analysis:

It is highly unlikely that North Korea would be allowed to use the center even if it took steps toward denuclearization. Its ties to Iran are too strong to risk allowing North Korean nuclear experts into the center to see what kind of safeguards the U.S. and China have. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)

President Hu Jintao of China and U.S. President Barack Obama met at the White House to discuss nuclear security. Image source: http://bit.ly/dU2w6N