Friday, February 11, 2011

China Negative About S. Korea's Push To Take N. Korea's Uranium Program To U.N.

11 February 2011

YONHAP (BEIJING) - China expressed concern about North Korea's uranium enrichment program (UEP) when Beijing's chief nuclear envoy met with his South Korean counterpart, but insisted that the issue should be dealt with at six-party nuclear talks. South Korea's main nuclear envoy, Wi Sung-lac's visit came after China expressed "concern" about the North's uranium program for the first time in last month's summit with the United States. That had raised hope that Beijing could change its position and back Seoul's efforts to bring the issue to the Security Council. Source: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/02/11/35/0301000000AEN20110211009500315F.HTML (Reliability: Moderate - 38.88)

Cameco Signs Uranium Purchase Agreements In Finland

08 February 2011

MONTREALGAZETTE.COM
(MONTREAL)--Canada-based Cameco Corp. signed two agreements to buy uranium produced at the Sotkamo mine from Talvivaara Mining Co. The first agreement states that Cameco will provide up to USD 60 million to construct an extraction circuit at the mine that they will complete in 2012. After initial uranium deliveries repay this contribution, Cameco will purchase uranium from the mine until 31 December 2027 per the second agreement. Cameco will then take ownership of the mine, which they expect to produce 900,000 lbs of uranium annually. Source: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Cameco+signs+uranium+purchase+agreements+Finland/4244477/story.html (Reliability: 44.16--Moderate)

Analysis:
With the addition of uranium from the Sotkamo mine to its long list of resources, Cameco is highly likely to continue to be a global leader in uranium extraction over the next two years. On 19 December 2010, Cameco marked producing its 400 millionth pound of U3O8. Its principal mine, McArthur River Mine, produced nearly 16.18 million pounds of uranium in 2010 (15% of world production) that Cameco converted into 19.1 million pounds of U3O8 at its Key Lake processing plant. (Analytic Confidence: High)

Image: The red rectangle and shaded area outline the Sotkamo mine in Finland. Image Source: http://www.gexco.se/images/taivaljarvi/location_2.jpg

U.A.E. Needs To Determine Nuclear Fuel Disposal Plan, Blix Says

08 February 2011

BLOOMBERG (DUBAI)-The United Arab Emirates needs to determine how to dispose of used nuclear fuel as part of its energy development program, government adviser and former United Nations chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said. “The question of a final disposal plan is still open and more attention should be spent on deciding what to do,” Blix, chairman of an independent advisory group set up by the government, told reporters on 7 February. He added that the federation currently focused on implementing regulations and building the plants. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/u-a-e-needs-to-determine-nuclear-fuel-disposal-plan-blix-says.html (Reliability: 47.91--High)


Comment:
The federation will be the first Gulf Arab country to develop nuclear power if it starts up its first reactor in 2017 as planned. Abu Dhabi, the largest sheikhdom in the U.A.E. and the nation’s capital, owns Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp., the only company that plans to build the power plants in the country.

Nuclear Nonproliferation Support Center Opens

08 February 2011

DENKI SHIMBUN (TOKYO)--Japan opened the Integrated Comprehensive Support Center for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Nuclear Security on February 4. The facility will provide training in the principles of nuclear material protection systems, regulatory frameworks, and facility design for nuclear material protection for developing countries with new nuclear power capabilities. Shunsuke Kondo, the head of Japan's Atomic Energy Commission, and Jill Cooley, the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Division of Concepts and Planning Director, both spoke at the facility's opening ceremony. The facility is located near many other nuclear power related facilities (at the blue marker on the map above; click to enlarge). Source: http://www.shimbun.denki.or.jp/en/news/20110208_01.html (Reliability: 43.4 -- Moderate)


Analysis:
It is highly likely that nuclear non-proliferation efforts will be a major political movement at least through the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul. Additionally, it is likely that countries will continue to provide necessary support for developing countries that wish to pursue nuclear power. The IAEA will likely provide a supportive role in this endeavor.
In January of 2011, the United States announced the construction of similar facilities in Russia and China. (Analytic Confidence: High)

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Atomstroyexport Will Build Two Reactors In Ukraine

10 February 2011

WORLD NUCLEAR NEWS (LONDON) - Atomstroyexport, a Russian nuclear reactor construction company, signed an agreement on 9 February 2011 with EnergoAtom, Ukraine's national electicity generator, to build two reactors at Ukraine's Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. The agreement lays the groundwork for contracts regarding reactor design and equipment. Construction of these reactors began in 1985 but stopped in 1990. In June 2010 Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to resume construction. Ukraine expects to commission the reactors in 2016 and 2017. Source: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Contract_agreement_for_Khmelnitsky_3_and_4-1002115.html (Reliability 39.09 -- Moderate)

Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. Image source: http://ukrainetrek.com/Khmelnitsky_city.shtml#

Friday, February 4, 2011

WikiLeaks Cables: British Firms Made Millions From Trading With Iranians

04 February 2011

THE DAILY TELEGRAPH (LONDON) – Fearing that trade deals of aircraft and ships between British firms and Iranians correlated with the transport of nuclear material, the US and UK blocked the arrangement in April 2008. After making millions of pounds selling or leasing items to Iran, the
UK’s Balli Group’s American subsidiary, Balli Aviation, paid $2 million in criminal fines and $13 million in civil fines after pleading guilty in a US court to illegally exporting aircraft to Iran. Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299355/WikiLeaks-cables-British-firms-made-millions-from-trading-with-Iranians.html (Reliability: 47.94 - High)

Comment:
Mahan Air, the Iranian company which leased the aircraft, is associated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the Embassy cable
. The settlement Balli Aviation paid out is one of the largest fines imposed by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security. UK Bailli intended to provide three 747-400s to Iran.

Image source: http://www.aerospace-technology.com/projects/747/

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Stuxnet Could Trigger Atomic Calamity, Intel Report Warns

01 February 2011

GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON) - A non-U.S. intelligence report stated Monday, January 31st, 2011, that the Stuxnet worm that affected Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant could trigger a calamity similar to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The report states the operating reactor (Bushehr), would have the power of a "small nuclear bomb" and the "minimum possible damage would be meltdown of the reactor" if Stuxnet compromised its controls. A conflicting response from an expert who analyzed the effect of the Stuxnet worm on the Siemens controls system said something like Stuxnet could not trigger a thermonuclear reaction. Source: http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20110201_5933.php
(Reliability: 46.04 - Moderate)

Comment:
Reports regarding the effect of Stuxnet have been mixed since the initial attack. The source of the worm has not been revealed and Iran has not been entirely straightforward in how much the attack affected the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

Updated Feasibility Study Yields More Resources For Etango Uranium Project In Namibia

31 January 2011

WORLD NUCLEAR NEWS (LONDON)-- Bannerman Resources estimates that the indicated and inferred resources at its Etango deposit in Namibia have risen to 149 million pounds (mlbs) and 64 mlbs of U3O8 respectively. Its updated feasibility study indicates that Etango will have a mine life of 20 years, producing 5-7 mlbs of U3O8 per year. Bannerman will mine the deposit using open pit methods and a simple heap leaching process. It plans to complete the feasibility study, secure a development partner, and obtain a mining license during 2011. Source: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ENF-More_resources_as_Etango_plans_take_shape-3101118.html (Reliability: 46.73 -- Moderate)

Analysis:
It is likely that uranium mining will dramatically increase in Namibia over the next 12-24 months. Currently, Rio Tinto's Rossing mine and Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich mine produce about 10% of the world's uranium. UraMin expects to start production at its Trekkopje mine in 2012, and Bannerman is making significant progress with its Etango project and aims to start production in 2013. Lastly, the Namibian Ministry of Environment and Tourism gave the environmental approval for Extract Resources' Husab project on 28 January 2011. This is a large step in obtaining a mining license from the Namibian government and Extract estimates the Husab project to produce 15 mlbs of U3O8 per year.
(Analytic Confidence: Moderate)


Image Source: Google Earth and http://australianuraniuminvesting.blogspot.com/2010_01_24_archive.html

New Estimates Put Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal At More Than 100

31 January 2011

WASHINGTON POST (WASHINGTON)--Analysts estimate that Pakistan now has over 100 nuclear weapons. Pakistan likely now has more nuclear weapons than its rival India and the United Kingdom. Pakistan has more than doubled its nuclear weapon total since 2007. The estimate comes independently from Hans M. Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists, and Shaun Gregory, director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at Britain's University of Bradford. Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013004136.html?hpid=topnews (Reliability: 49.82 -- High)


Analysis:
It is highly likely that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal will become a major point of contention diplomatically between Russia, China, India, and the United States (U.S.). Russia recently has increased its cooperation with India and finds Pakistan's nuclear buildup "disturbing." China sees India as a major rival in the area and thus has invested heavily in Pakistan. The U.S. is caught in the middle due to partnerships with both India and Pakistan, along with the ongoing war in Afghanistan. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)

Pakistani Nuclear Weapons Arsenal On Track To Be World's Fifth Largest

01 February 2011

GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON) Recent U.S. intelligence estimates claim Pakistan is rapidly increasing the size of its nuclear stockpile and could become the fifth largest nuclear arms possessor. United States officials believe Pakistan has roughly 90 to 110 nuclear weapons. When President Obama assumed office in 2009, the United States believed Islamabad's nuclear forces numbered in the upper 70s. US officials believe India possesses between 60 and 100 nuclear weapons. Source: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110201_5282.php (Reliability: 39.52 -- Moderate)


Analysis:
Increased Pakistani nuclear development is unlikely to change Pakistan's relationship with India or the rest of the world. Pakistan already possesses enough nuclear weapons to present a credible nuclear threat to India. (Analytic Confidence: Low)

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Davos: Saudi Not To Forego Its Right To Domestic Uranium Enrichment

27 January 2011

IFANDP (SURREY, ENGLAND) –Prince Turki al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia stated that Saudi Arabia does not plan to forego their right to enrich uranium, but will consider alternatives in an effort to improve relations with Iran. According to the Prince, Saudi has plans to develop nuclear energy for domestic uses. In an interview at the Davos economic summit, Prince Turki al Faisal stated, “Saudi has proposed as a way to resolve this issue with Iran to have a neutral country to supply enriched uranium to Middle East countries.” Source: http://www.ifandp.com/article/009235.html (Reliability: Moderate - 40.71)

Analysis:
It is unlikely that Iran will stop pursing domestic uranium enrichment despite the Saudi’s proposal to import enriched fuel to Iran. After the investment made into their current uranium enrichment infrastructure, and the stubborn stance to date about their program, it is unlikely that importing enriched uranium would coerce the Iranian regime into abandoning their domestic enrichment program. (Analytic Confidence: Low)

Friday, January 28, 2011

Alarm Raised Over Shipment Of Spilled Uranium

28 January 2011

TIMES COLONIST (NANAIMO) — A shipment of partially spilled uranium concentrate docked offshore from Ladysmith, Canada for a few days raises questions about what kinds of hazardous materials are shipped through B.C. waters, an environmental organization says. The Liberian-registered cargo ship Altona carried 350 tons of uranium from Saskatoon-based Cameco Corp. when heavy seas forced it to return to Canada after several of its containers shifted. The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission considers the uranium concentrate, also known as yellowcake, as “mildly radioactive” and said it poses no threat to the ship’s crew, the public or the environment. Source: http://tinyurl.com/5vlgbxs (Reliability: 40.1 -- Moderate)

Image source: http://www.calgaryherald.com/technology/Cameco+uranium+spill/4134597/story.html


Analysis:

It is likely that over the course of the next six months, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission will re-evaluate their regulations to ensure proper safety of nuclear material transportation. If they do not, then it is likely groups will continue to raise concern over their abilities to properly transport nuclear material. (Analytic Confidence: High)

CTBTO Tests Nuke Explosion Monitoring Technology

28 January 2011

GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON)--The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) tested a new way of detecting an atmospheric nuclear explosion in the Israeli Negev desert. The test successfully demonstrated that infrasound technology can detect low-frequency sound waves that human ears cannot hear. The test involved 25 infrasound sensors located in 15 Middle Eastern and European states. Six additional states collected the data for analysis. Source: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110127_8992.php (Reliability: 40.36 -- Moderate)


Image source: http://bit.ly/dLl0NO

U3O8 Aims To Rapidly Expand South American NI 43-101 Resources

24 January 2011

MARKETWIRE (TORONTO)--Canadian-based U3O8 Corp. plans to substantially increase its NI 43-101 (NI) resource portfolio in Colombia, Guyana, and Argentina in 2011. At its Berlin project in Colombia, U3O8 Corp. aspires to define a potential NI resource of an initial 20-25 million pounds (mlbs) of uranium. It wants to expand current NI resources to 20-25 mlbs at the Kurupung project in Guyana. Lastly, the company aims to report a NI resource estimate on the Laguna Salada project in Argentina while exploring the next target in order to increase resources to 20-24 mlbs. Source: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/U3O8-Corp-Outlines-2011-Exploration-Program-Aimed-Rapidly-Expanding-Its-NI-43-101-Resource-TSX-VENTURE-UWE-1384160.htm (Reliability: 47.91 -- High)

Image: The top left white thumbtack identifies the location of the Berlin project in Colombia (about 94 miles northwest of Bogota), the top center tack is of the Kurupung project in Guyana (about 120 miles southwest of Georgetown), and the bottom center tack is of the Laguna Salada project in Argentina (about 122 miles southwest of Rawson).
Image source: Google Earth

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Moscow Schedules Next Bulava Launch For Summer 2011

27 January 2011

GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON)--Moscow has delayed the 15th test flight of its experimental Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile until summer 2011. Moscow had originally scheduled the test for December 2010, but heavy ice in the White Sea created unsafe testing conditions. The Bulava can carry up to ten nuclear warheads as far as 5,000 miles. Seen of the missile's 14 trial launches were successful, including a pair of tests conducted in October 2010. Source: http://gsn.nti.org/nw_20110127_3676.php (Reliability: 45.3 -- Moderate)


Diagram of how the Bulava missile functions. Image source: http://en15.rian.ru/img/118575033_free.html

Friday, January 21, 2011

China Needs 10 Years For Nuclear Fuel Recycling: CNNC

18 January 2011

AFP (SHANGHAI)—According to China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) officials, China will need at least a decade to reprocess nuclear fuel on an industrial scale. An expert from the IAEA said on Monday, January 17th, that China would first need to upgrade their nuclear facilities. The IAEA official, Gary Dyck also stated, “…they will need to construct and commission a much larger facility.” China’s pilot-scale plant used the same aqueous recycle technology used in commercial-scale plants in France, Russia, and other countries. Source: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gYhJQhZJ3uPF71OmiPoGd1vQgDjA?docId=CNG.55c507d303160fbb5de1b214b3d1c635.161 (Reliability: High – 48.24)

Berkeley Resources Begins Exploitation Phase For Spanish Uranium Project

19 January 2011

MININGWEEKLY.COM (JOHANNESBURG)--Australian-based Berkeley Resources will submit its exploitation plan to the Spanish government for its Salamanca project. This project comprises the Aguila, Alameda, Retortillo, and Villar mining deposits and has an estimated 71.2 million pounds of uranium. Berkeley submitted this plan in November 2010 to Spanish state-owned ENUSA and the two companies established a joint venture (JV) to operate the project, with Berkeley controlling 90%. Berkeley must pay USD 25.6 million to ENUSA for the transfer of ENUSA-owned elements into the JV. Source: http://www.miningweekly.com/article/berkeley-moves-spain-uranium-project-to-exploitation-phase-2011-01-19 (Reliability: 47.69 -- High)


Analysis:

It is unlikely that Russian-stated owned OA
O Severstal (a leading steel and mining company) will gain a controlling stake in Berkeley Resources. There was an existing Severstal take over bid of Berkeley, however the two companies could not finalize the terms of the deal before the 14 January 2011 deadline. This deal expired, but Berkeley is currently continuing discussions with Severstal on another transaction proposal. It is unlikely that this new proposal will result in a take over bid due to the raising price of uranium, the estimated deposits of the Salamanca project and its step towards the exploitation phase, and Berkeley's new desire to explore a broad range of financing alternatives. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)

Image: Depicts the Salamanca uranium project in central Spain, with the Villar deposit (top left), Alameda deposit (bottom left), Aguila deposit (bottom right), and Retortillo deposit (top right). Source: http://www.berkeleyresources.com.au/



Kaiga 4 Connected To Grid

19 January 2011

WORLD NUCLEAR NEWS (LONDON)—India added the fourth unit at the Kaiga nuclear power plant (in the southwestern Indian state of Karnataka) to its power grid on 19 January 2011. Kaiga 4 is a 220 MWe domestically designed pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR), similar to the three units already in operation at the site. The reactor achieved first criticality on 27 November 2010 and is now India's 20th operating unit. The 880 MWe that Kaiga 4 generates will supply the southern Indian states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Pudducherry. Source: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Kaiga_4_connected_to_grid-1901114.html (Reliability: 35.84 -- Moderate)

Thursday, January 20, 2011

U.S., China Agree To Expand Nuclear Security Ties

20 January 2011

GLOBAL SECURITY NEWSWIRE (WASHINGTON)--The United States (U.S.) and China agreed to open and operate a collaborative nuclear security center in China. The center will seek to spread best practices in regards to states' abilities to safeguard and account for nuclear materials. The U.S. agreed to supply trainers and machinery for the center, while China agreed to pay for most of the costs of operation. Officials said other Asian nations likely would be allowed to use the center. The center would be a joint effort between the U.S. National Nuclear Safety Administration (N.N.S.A.) and the China Atomic Energy Authority. Source: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110120_5230.php (Reliability: 45.3 -- Moderate)

Analysis:
It is highly unlikely that North Korea would be allowed to use the center even if it took steps toward denuclearization. Its ties to Iran are too strong to risk allowing North Korean nuclear experts into the center to see what kind of safeguards the U.S. and China have. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)

President Hu Jintao of China and U.S. President Barack Obama met at the White House to discuss nuclear security. Image source: http://bit.ly/dU2w6N

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Graham Construction Preferred For £100m Dounreay Nuclear Waste Job

CONSTRUCTION ENQUIRER (LONDON)— The Dounreay nuclear waste facility in northern Scotland is under restoration to continue the decommissioning of Dournreay and the adjacent Vulcan nuclear facility. The two plants expect to produce up to 175,000 cubic meters of solid low-level radioactive waste from the site clean-up. Another 38,000 cubic meters of waste is currently on site in disused disposal pits that date from the 1950s. The Northern Irish firm beat rival bids from BAM Nuttal, Black & Veatch and MBM, a joint venture between Morrison, Balfour Beatty and Morgan Sindall. Source: http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2011/01/14/graham-wins-100m-dounreay-waste-storage-job/
(Reliability: 47.81 -- Moderate)

Analysis:
It is likely that other nuclear facilities in Great Britain will store all nuclear waste and spent fuel from decommissioned nuclear power plants on site. This is due to an inability to find a suitable centralized location. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)

Image Source: http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/meast/9902/14/lockerbie/great.britain.map.jpg